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Tahoe Update


Tahoe Update

Greetings Fellow Life Travelers:

Got your sheepskin on?  We are still enjoying sub-freezing temps at night, with inching up to about 5 minutes of near 40 degrees during the day.  My garage door was frozen to the pavement on Wednesday, allowing me to skip the most important appointment ever – hair do. So now I remember to raise it an inch when I get home.  However, we are all smiling with the beautiful weather.  Skiing must be fab, and the world was here again this weekend.  And, from a biz standpoint, I think things are looking up a bit.  Here’s the last week report on real estate.

  • Residential Real Estate – week 1/21 – 1/27  
  • Tahoe Sierra MLS – North/West Shores & Truckee.  New Listings – 10; Escrows – 12; Solds – 10
  • Incline Village/Crystal Bay MLS.  New Listings – 3; Escrows – 4; Solds – 2
  • East Shore, NV MLS.  New Listings – 2; Escrows – 5; Solds – 1
  • Reno/Sparks MLS.  New Listings – 66; Escrows – 127; Solds – 54

For the week for TSMLS, sell price to list was 97%, a reflection of some modification of list prices.  We had 2 sells at list and 1 over. Last week it was 95% of sell to list.  So, even if we’re not roaring along, we’re not in the tank with pricing and won’t be. In Martis Camp, a home originally listed at $7.795M, reduced to $6.995M went to escrow.  On the East Shore, a new lakefront listing at $13.9M, and a lakefront listed by Chase at $8.885M went to escrow.  For Reno, all but 3 in Escrow were under $1M.  

Economist Jose Rasco, Managing Director, Head of Investment Strategy at HSBC Private Bank Americas, gave his annual prediction for 2023 this week.  Overall state of the economy is fair; consumer confidence noy great but improving.  Does not see a recession in the first 2 quarters; predicts a slowdown, not a recession.  Mortgage interest rates coming down, housing index up in last 2 weeks. Long term view, 3rd & 4th Q will improve. Jobs in wind and solar growing rapidly.  “Near shoring” – jobs coming back to US.  Income tax-free states booming.  Supply chain should stabilize unless China production grows too fast.  CA and NY will continue to lose population.  Cities need people to come back, starting to trend up.  Strong sectors – energy, materials (lumber, etc.), food but chose quality companies only.  Tech re-aligning, 2024 earnings look promising.  Real estate – prices up, home-buyer sentiment rebounding.  Commercial/industrial will slow and rebound.  Even with 141K layoffs in tech in Bay Area, opportunity for new jobs good; few claims for unemployment.  People will continue to migrate to warmer, less expensive places.   Wealthy: spending doesn’t fluxuate but want value, same for foreign money coming in.  Crypto not dead, needs to be valid and will be regulated.  Blockchain booming across world. Digital markets continue to flourish. Expect two .25% interest raises by end of March, then Feds will reassess.  Politics: obstruction on both sides remain; brinksmanship prevails.  US economy is well capitalized and in decent shape to weather the storm. 

  • Local/Real Estate/Luxe
  • Palisades Development:  Last few days for comment on the huge development proposed by Altera for Palisades/Olympic Valley.  Some Placer County peeps say yes; huge concern from locals regarding the impact it will have.  Our Squaw Valley won’t look the same if all gets built in the next 25 years. Progress is good but needs to be mindful. Economic impact tends to fuel agency votes.  Write Patrick Dobbs, Senior Planner and Supervising planner, Alex Fisch – along with Supervisor Cindy Gustafson – before Feb 1, 2023.
  • Land now accounts for 47% of U.S. home values. In 1960, it was less than 20% of a home’s value. (ED: For lakefront properties, land value can well exceed 50% of the value, all depending on condition of improvements).  From George Harvey
  • Tahoe Lakefront Report:  New monthly Lakefront report in the mail to CA lakefront owners.  If you would like an email copy, please let me know. 
  • North Lake Tahoe Historical Society.  Visit the museum from now until April 31, an interactive exhibit of archival photos highlighting Lake Tahoe winters of the past.  Learn about food drops of the ‘30s and ‘50s at the TC Golf Course and more! Plus, remodel of a portion of the Marian Steinbach Native America Basket Museum is underway.
  • From Robert Refkin, Compass – 6 reasons we’re at bottom of recent real estate cycle: 1) increase in mortgage apps 2) mortgage rates continue to move down 3) greater traffic in open houses/buyer interest 4) sellers giving concessions to buyers 5) home builder sentiment improving 6) pending closings, that were down 30% in the fall are nearly flat year-over-year.  
  • La Bonbonniere, New York’s favorite greasy spoon. Since the 1930s in the West Village, it continues to thrive and has enjoyed movie star visits and is the location of scenes in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.  Daisy Prince
  • Sorry, sorry, sorry. Regardless of how you apologize, do not ask for forgiveness.  Forgiveness is a gift to be granted, and it’s rude to ask for a gift.  Digital Party/Daisy Prince
  • Want To Save $150K on a Home? Here’s the One Place Where These Bargains Are Hiding Today:
  • Investor David Malm has purchased close to $100M in luxury real estate properties on Cape Cod and Nantucket.  He renovates them as luxury rentals and does not invest in the stock market.  He picks luxury areas with low inventory, banking on value escalation over time. Wall Street Journal
  • Entertainment
  • Porpoise Ballet (pretty amazing)    See below.
  • TidBits
  • Blind belief in authority is the greatest enemy of truth. Albert Einstein
  • A lot of people like snow.  I find it to be an unnecessary freezing of water.  Carl Reiner
  • I wonder if the snow loves the trees and fields that it kisses so gently.  And then it covers them up, you know, with a white quilt, and perhaps it says, “go to sleep, darlings, ‘till the summer comes again”.  Lewis Carroll
  • “If an egg is broken by an outside force, life ends.  If broken by an inside force, life begins. Great things always begin from the inside.  Jim Kwik
  • Drink water, get outside, find some sunshine. You’re basically a plant with more complicated emotions.
  • Health nuts are going to feel stupid someday, lying in bed, dying of nothing.
  • In the ‘60s, people took LSD to make the world weird.  Now the world is weird, and people take Prozac to make it normal.
  • Prayer is the original wireless communication.
  • Whenever I try to eat healthy, a chocolate bar looks at me and snickers.  Indian Hills signs
  • Despite the high cost of living, it remains popular.  Indian Hills signs
  • Decaf Coffee is depresso.  Indian Hills signs
  • “It’s paradoxical that the idea of living a long life appeals to everyone, but the idea of getting old doesn’t appeal to anyone.”  Any Rooney
  • “Birthdays are good for you.  Statistics show that the people who have the most live the longest.”  Larry Lorenzon
  • Don’t get upset with people and situations; both are powerless without your reaction.
  • I just told my suitcases that we aren’t going on vacation this year.  Now I’m dealing with emotional baggage.

So, pack that bag and have some fun!  Enjoy the sunshine, and I’ll see you next time.

Best wishes,